I Know First held a public webinar on LInkedin On Oct 8 2024, the webinar can be found here: https://www.linkedin.com/events/iknowfirstwebinar-aistockpicksp7248625682505752577/theater/ (Cycles-Trader does not have any business relation nor any affiliate with I Know First)
I know first is a daily market forecast service. The company employs multiple data scientists. In the webinar the CEO and main advisor presented some results of the predictions. I know first provides forecasts for 3 days, 14 days, 1 month, 3 months and 1 year ahead. The interesting topic was to compare these results to Cycles-Trader’s results for the same portfolio. The relevant comparison to Cycles-Trader is 3 months and 1 year ahead.
Here is the legend for reading the predictions:
- Background: Green = Long, Red = Short.
- Numbers: past correlation, strength of signal
Here are the results for the prediction for stocks provided on 21 July 2023, for 1 year ahead:
Cycles-Trader results for the above stocks from 21 July 2023
Summary
- In the following analysis we can see that Cycles-Trader provided much better results
- Note: BITA, CLNS, CLVS tickers were not available on Yahoo Finance on 9 Oct 2024, so no comparison was available.
- Note: NVR appears both in the Long list and in the Short list – does not allow any comparison
- I Know First
- Most of I Know First long recommendations would have been aborted since the stock went down first.
- All of I Know First short recommendations were generating either minimum gain or heavy losses
- In general, I Know First users get a single number for each stock without the predicted timing, which makes it very difficult to trade.
- Cycles-Trader
- Cycles-Trader global direction (Red line) was accurate in all cases
- Cycles-Trader Blue timing was mostly accurate in majority of cases, some cases have miss alignment of a month or two which can be overcome or avoided using basic trading knowledge
- Cycles-Trader Pink timing+dates was mostly accurate in majority of cases, some cases have miss alignment of a month or two which can be overcome or avoided using basic trading knowledge
- In general, Cycles-Trader provides directions and timing, enabling the trader to visualize the direction in advance and plan his trades, gaining much more profits with less money time in the market
- Please note: In general, in an uptrend market such as in this case, it is much easier to allocate long positions correctly as most stocks will go with the market trend.
Detailed Analysis
MHO, long, got strongest signal and good probability from I Know First. As a trader you should have had much hesitation to continue the long position after the 4.9.2023 and after the 31.1.2024. With a lot of risk missing the big jump on the last week of this period.
Cycles-Trader provided much better visualization. The Red line indicates a strong uptrend. The Blue and Pink lines captured very well the areas and dates of upcoming change of directions. As a trader you could entered the stock only on 26.10.2023 and exit on 4.3.2024, and re-enter on 13.6.2024, gaining much more profit with less money time in the market.
HOV , long, got strong signal and good probability from I Know First As a trader you should have had much hesitation to continue the long position after the 8.9.2023 and after the 1.2.2024. The big jump was really only on the last week of this period.
Cycles Trader provided much better visualization. The Red line indicates a strong uptrend. The Blue and Pink lines captured very well the areas and dates of upcoming change of directions. As a trader you could entered the stock only on 28.10.2023 and exit on 1.2.2024, and re-enter on 6.6.2024, gaining much more profit with less money time in the market.
BZH long, got strong signal and good probability from I Know First As a trader you should have had much hesitation to continue the long position after the 1.8.2023 and after the 4.3.2024. You could easily miss the big jump that was really only on the last week of this period.
Cycles Trader provided much better visualization. The Red line indicates a medium uptrend. The Blue and Pink lines captured very well the areas and dates of upcoming change of directions. As a trader you could entered the stock only on 28.10.2023 and exit on 4.3.2024, and re-enter on 14.5.2024, gaining much more profit with less money time in the market.
PHM, long, got strong signal and good probability from I Know First. As a trader you should have had much hesitation to continue the long position after the 8.9.2023 and may have missed the whole trade.
Cycles-Trader provided much better visualization. The Red line indicates a medium uptrend. The Blue and Pink lines captured very well the areas and dates of upcoming change of directions. As a trader you could entered the stock only on 2.11.2023 and exit on 13.3.2024, and re-enter on the last week of this period, gaining much more profit with less money time in the market.
MTH, long, got strong signal and good probability from I Know First. As a trader you should have had much hesitation to continue the long position after the 25.8.2023 and may have missed the whole trade.
Cycles-Trader provided much better visualization. The Red line indicates a medium uptrend. The Blue and Pink lines captured very well the areas and dates of upcoming change of directions. As a trader you could entered the stock only on 27.10.2023 and exit on 28.2.2024, and re-enter on 1.7.2024, gaining much more profit with less money time in the market.
SLG, long, got good signal and good probability from I Know First. As a trader you should have had some hesitation to continue the long position after the 27.11.2023 and may have missed the whole trade.
Cycles-Trader provided much better visualization. The Red line indicates a strong uptrend. The Blue and Pink lines captured very well the areas and dates of upcoming change of directions. As a trader you could entered the stock only on 27.11.2023 (here Cycles-Trader missed the change-of-direction exact date by 3 weeks) and exit on 21.7.2024, gaining much more profit with less money time in the market.
DHI, long, got good signal and good probability from I Know First. As a trader you should have had some hesitation to continue the long position after the 22.8.2023 and may have missed the whole trade.
Cycles-Trader provided much better visualization. The Red line indicates a strong uptrend. The Blue and Pink lines captured very well the areas and dates of upcoming change of directions. As a trader you could entered the stock only on 7.11.2023 and exit on 11.3.2024, re-enter on 7.6.2024, gaining much more profit with less money time in the market.
MAS, long, got good signal and good probability from I Know First. As a trader you should have had much hesitation to continue the long position after the 30.7.2023 and may have missed the whole trade.
Cycles-Trader provided much better visualization. The Red line indicates a strong uptrend. The Blue and Pink lines captured very well the areas and dates of upcoming change of directions. As a trader you could entered the stock only on 24.10.2023 and exit on 1.4.2024, gaining much more profit with less money time in the market.
PLD, long, got good signal and good probability from I Know First. As a trader you should have had much hesitation to continue the long position after the 5.9.2023 and may have missed the whole trade.
Cycles-Trader provided much better visualization. The Red line indicates a mild change of direction uptrend. The Blue and Pink lines captured very well the areas and dates of upcoming change of directions, except the bottom on Oct 2023, about 2 months miss. As a trader you could entered the stock only on 27.11.2023 and exit on 13.3.2024, re-enter on 3.5.2024, gaining much more profit with less money time in the market.
MTD, short, got weak signal and good probability from I Know First. As a trader you should have had much hesitation to continue the short position after the 14.12.2023 and may have missed much the trade. The prediction for the hole period was apparently wrong as the stock changed direction and was long most of the time.
Cycles-Trader provided much better visualization. The Red line indicates a mild change of direction uptrend. The Blue and Pink lines captured very well the areas and dates of upcoming change of directions, except the bottom on Oct 2023, about 1 months miss. As a trader you could exited the stock on 14.12.2023 and enter long on that date, gaining much more profit with less money time in the market.
ANSS, short, got weak signal and good probability from I Know First. As a trader you should have had much hesitation to continue the short position after the 21.10.2023 and if you took the whole period you may have missed much the trade. The prediction for the hole period was apparently wrong as the stock changed direction and was long most of the time.
Cycles-Trader provided much better visualization. The Red line indicates a medium uptrend. The Blue and Pink lines captured very well the areas and dates of upcoming change of directions. As a trader you could exited the stock on 21.10.2023 and enter long on that date until 22.3.2024, gaining much more profit with less money time in the market.
FOLD, short, got weak signal and good probability from I Know First. As a trader you should have had much hesitation to continue the short position after the 12.12.2023, and if you took the whole period you may have gained very little.
Cycles-Trader provided much better visualization. The Red line indicates a change from uptrend to downtrend . The Blue and Pink lines captured very well the areas and dates of upcoming change of directions. There is a miss of 1 month on Dec 2023. As a trader you could exited the stock on 12.12.2023 and enter long on that date until 6.3.2024, then go short on that date until 23.5.2024, gaining much more profit with less money time in the market.
FAF, short, got weak signal and good probability from I Know First. As a trader you should have had much hesitation to continue the short position after the 22.7.2023 as the stock went up, or after 19.11.2023, and if you took the whole period you may have gained very little.
Cycles-Trader provided much better visualization. The Red line indicates a change from downtrend to uptrend which is correct. The Blue and Pink lines captured very well the areas and dates of upcoming change of directions. There is a miss of 1 month on Jan 2024. As a trader you could exited the stock on 19.11.2023 and enter long on that date until 19.2.2024, gaining much more profit with less money time in the market.
DK, short, got weak signal and good probability from I Know First. As a trader you should have had much hesitation to continue the short position after the 12.9.2023 as the stock went up, or after 8.4.2024 and if you took the whole period you may have gained very little.
Cycles-Trader provided much better visualization. The Red line indicates a change from downtrend to uptrend which is correct. The Blue and Pink lines captured very well the areas and dates of upcoming change of directions. As a trader you could follow the entry and exit signals incorporated with the basic trading knowledge, gaining much more profit with less money time in the market.
CORT, short, got weak signal and good probability from I Know First. The forecast is obviously wrong as the stock did not go downwards, and if you took the whole period you may have a loss
Cycles-Trader provided much better visualization. The Red line indicates a change from downtrend to uptrend which is correct. The Blue and Pink lines captured very well the areas and dates of upcoming change of directions. There is a miss of 1 month on Dec 2023. As a trader you could follow the entry and exit signals incorporated with the basic trading knowledge, gaining much more profit with less money time in the market.
Here are the results for the prediction for stocks provided on 1 Oct 2023, for 1 year ahead:
- This list includes most of the stocks that were recommended on 21 July 2023 in the above analysis
- The list of short stocks is not included in the final report, probably that could have spoiled the bottom line
